Interesting times ahead as we approach the month of campaigns to the 2023 general elections. Reno Omokri is dissecting the issues and putting the narratives in perspective.
“The biggest beneficiary of Peter Obi’s Presidential race is Tinubu, not Obidients. Peter won’t affect APC’s votes. The votes he will likely get are votes that would have naturally gone to PDP, including in the Southeast, some non Yoruba Lagos votes, a chunk of Benue votes, and a few votes in peripheral states.
There is a lot of hysteria, which has blinded the eyes of the core Obidients. That uncontrollable emotion makes them blind to a lot of things. One of which is that the Yoruba have NEVER voted for a non Yoruba when a Yoruba is in the race. It does not matter whether or not they like the person.
Another is that the Hausa and Fulani have only ever voted for a Muslim, whether he be from the North or South. You might raise the issue of Jonathan. I was one of the strategists behind President Jonathan’s 2011 victory and we lost in the North. What we were looking for was 25%, which we got in 2011, but could not get in 2015. In fact, we got less than 20% in Kano, Bauchi, and Yobe in 2011.
And no core Northern Governor will risk his political future for a ticket that is seen by Northern masses, rightly or wrongly, to be against their core interests. As extremely popular as he was, Kwankwaso tried it in 2003. Go and ask him what happened to him.
Tinubu is a master tactician. He knows Peter Obi cannot win. And he knows that very, very little of Peter’s votes, if any at all, will come from him. He is aware that Peter is eating into the PDP’s votes. So, he will promote Obi’s candidacy through proxies. Because that is one of his paths to victory! All he would ask from his Southeast foot soldiers is that they should get him 25% of the votes in at least 2 Southeastern states. And he will get it in Imo and Ebonyi, by hook or crook!”